The US move against Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro has refocused attention on one of the world’s most politically sensitive oil industries, forcing investors to reassess who controls the country’s petroleum resources and whether they can be meaningfully revived after decades of decline.

For now, the answer appears relatively straightforward. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said: “Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state-owned oil company, controls the vast majority of oil production and reserves.”

US energy major Chevron operates in the country through its own output and via a joint venture with PDVSA, while Russian and Chinese firms are also involved through partnerships. However, “majority control still rests with PDVSA,” according to Lipow. Chevron shares rose more than 6% in pre-market trading by 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Monday.

Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in the 1970s, leading to the creation of PDVSA. Oil output peaked at around 3.5 million barrels per day in 1997, but has since fallen to an estimated 950,000 barrels per day, of which about 550,000 barrels per day are exported, according to data from Lipow Oil Associates.

If a government more aligned with the United States and more supportive of investment were to take power, Chevron would be “best positioned” to expand its role, said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial. He added that European firms such as Repsol and Eni could also benefit, given their existing presence in Venezuela.

What does this mean for global oil markets?

Industry experts warned that any regime change could disrupt the trading chain that keeps Venezuelan oil flowing.

“Given the lack of clarity over who is in charge in Venezuela right now, we could see exports grind to a halt because buyers don’t know who to pay,” Lipow said. He added that the latest round of US sanctions targeting the so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers had already hit exports hard, forcing Venezuela to cut production.

The term “shadow fleet” refers to tankers operating outside traditional shipping, insurance, and regulatory systems to transport oil from sanctioned countries. These vessels are commonly used to move crude from countries such as Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, which face US restrictions on energy exports.

Lipow expects Chevron to continue exporting roughly 150,000 barrels per day, limiting any immediate impact on supply. However, he said broader uncertainty could add a short-term risk premium of around $3 per barrel.

This potential increase comes at a time when many analysts believe the market is adequately supplied, at least for now. Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group said the oil market is currently heading toward a surplus, describing the immediate impact as “almost negligible.”

Venezuela’s longer-term importance lies in the type of crude it produces. The country’s heavy, high-sulfur oil is difficult to extract, but highly sought after by complex refineries, particularly in the United States. McNally said: “US refineries love to gulp down this thick crude from Venezuela and Canada.”

He added: “The real question is whether the oil industry can return to Venezuela and reverse two decades of decline, neglect, and damage, and actually raise production again.”

If opposition leader María Corina Machado were installed as president quickly, sanctions could be eased and oil exports might initially rise as inventories are drawn down to generate revenue, according to Lipow. However, he noted that any short-term increase could weigh on prices.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures for March delivery rose 0.5% to $61.03 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures for February delivery climbed 0.6% to $57.64 per barrel.

Still, any vision of a sustained recovery faces severe physical constraints. “Venezuela’s oil industry is in such a degraded state that even with a change in government, it is unlikely we would see any meaningful increase in production for years,” Lipow said, noting that rehabilitating existing infrastructure would require substantial investment.

Similarly, Helima Croft of RBC warned that the road to recovery would be long, pointing to “decades of decline under the Chávez and Maduro regimes.” She said oil executives estimate that at least $10 billion per year would be needed to repair the sector, with a “stable security environment” being an essential prerequisite.

She added: “All bets are off in a chaotic power transition scenario, like those seen in Libya or Iraq.”

Copper prices jumped toward record levels on Monday, as supply concerns intensified following a strike at a Chilean mine, alongside expectations of market deficits and declining inventories in warehouses approved by the London Metal Exchange.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 2.8% to $12,823 per metric ton by 10:42 GMT, after touching an intraday high of $12,905.5 per ton earlier in the session. The metal, widely used in the energy and construction sectors, had reached a record level of $12,960 per ton last week.

Traders said the strike at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine, operated by Capstone Copper in northern Chile, reinforced the narrative of tightening supply in the market.

Mantoverde is expected to produce between 29,000 and 32,000 metric tons of copper. While this represents only a small share of global mined copper output, estimated at around 24 million tons this year, it nonetheless strengthens expectations of a supply shortfall.

Analysts at UBS said in a note: “We expect copper demand to grow by around 3% in 2026, versus growth in refined copper supply of less than 1%, resulting in a deficit of between 300,000 and 400,000 tons, rising to around 500,000 tons in 2027.”

Copper prices were also supported by falling inventories at the London Metal Exchange, which declined to 142,550 tons, down 55% since late August.

A large portion of the copper leaving the LME system has been shipped to the United States, where prices also remain elevated, as tariffs on copper are under review, despite the metal being granted an exemption from import duties that came into force on August 1.

In related markets, aluminum earlier touched $3,069 per ton, its highest level since April 2022, amid concerns over potential supply shortages, partly linked to China’s production cap of 45 million tons.

Gregory Wietbicker, president of Wittsend Commodity Advisors, said: “For the past 20 years, prices on the London Metal Exchange have largely been set based on capital costs in China. Now the market has to start thinking about capital spending in places like Indonesia, Finland, or India.”

Aluminum rose 1.5% to $3,060 per ton, zinc gained 1.4% to $3,171, lead edged up 0.3% to $2,012, nickel increased 0.4% to $16,885, while tin surged 3.7% to $41,925 per ton.

Bitcoin climbed to its highest level in three weeks, breaking through a widely watched technical level, as digital assets began to catch up with gains in equities and precious metals.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose as much as 2.3% on Monday, trading just below $93,000 by 6:34 a.m. New York time. Ether also posted modest gains. Bitcoin’s advance came alongside rallies in gold, silver, and equities following the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Bitcoin moved above its 50-day moving average for the first time since the crypto market selloff began in early October, one of several signals suggesting prices are stabilizing on firmer footing. The token is up about 6% so far this year.

Political uncertainty sparked by Maduro’s arrest by US forces late last week did little to dampen investor appetite for higher-risk assets such as technology stocks, while helping drive further gains in gold and silver. US equity futures rose on Monday, led by technology shares.

At times, Bitcoin has been viewed as a safe haven during periods of turmoil, while in other phases it has traded in line with equities and risk assets. The cryptocurrency fell 24% in the fourth quarter, sharply diverging from the trajectory of gold and silver prices.

Sean McNulty, head of derivatives trading for Asia-Pacific at FalconX, said the latest gains were driven by so-called crypto-native firms — companies focused exclusively on digital assets — alongside a lack of selling pressure from groups including Bitcoin miners, wealthy family offices, and other large investment funds.

Tight trading range

Bitcoin had been stuck in a narrow trading range for weeks, missing the equity rally over the Christmas holiday period and ending 2025 down 6.5%. Its performance last year fell short of expectations, despite a wave of crypto-friendly US policies promoted by President Donald Trump.

On January 2, investors poured a combined $471 million into 12 US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, marking the largest inflow since November 11 and reinforcing signs of a shift in market sentiment.

Derivatives positioning is also showing increased activity. Funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures — a measure of the cost of borrowing to maintain bullish bets — climbed to their highest level since October 18, according to CryptoQuant data.

Timothy Meiser, head of research at crypto firm BRN, said: “This is a market that is stabilizing rather than accelerating. The coming weeks will determine whether fresh capital inflows can translate into sustained momentum, or whether time remains the dominant force shaping prices.”

Traders are now watching to see whether Bitcoin can hold a sustained break above $94,000, while $88,000 is seen as the key support level on the downside, according to McNulty.

Oil prices fell on Monday, as ample global supply offset concerns about the impact of the US arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on crude flows from Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil reserves.

Brent crude futures slipped by 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $60.52 a barrel by 09:40 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 21 cents, or 0.4%, to $57.11 a barrel.

Benchmark prices were volatile in early Asian trading, as investors assessed developments in Venezuela, an OPEC member whose oil exports had been subject to US sanctions, as well as the potential impact on global oil supply.

US President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the country and that sanctions would remain in place, after Maduro was detained in a New York prison on Sunday.

In a global market characterized by abundant supply, analysts said any additional disruption to Venezuelan exports would have a limited and immediate impact on prices.

Venezuela’s oil output has collapsed over recent decades due to mismanagement and a lack of investment from foreign companies after the country nationalized its oil operations in the early 2000s.

Average production stood at around 1.1 million barrels per day last year, equivalent to roughly 1% of global output.

Kazuhiko Fuji, a senior fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, said the US strikes had not damaged Venezuela’s oil sector.

Fuji said: “Even if Venezuelan exports are temporarily disrupted, more than 80% of them are shipped to China, which has built up large stockpiles.”

Venezuela’s interim president offered cooperation with the United States on Sunday.

Analysts at SEB said: “This reduces the risk of a prolonged ban on Venezuelan oil exports, with the possibility that oil shipments could flow freely from Venezuela within a relatively short period.”

Trump also warned of possible further US interventions, suggesting that Colombia and Mexico could face military action if they fail to curb illicit drug flows.

Analysts are also watching Iran’s response, after Trump warned on Friday of possible intervention in the crackdown on protests in the OPEC member state.

Separately, the OPEC and its allies agreed to keep output levels unchanged at their meeting on Sunday.